CBOE

Historical Earnings Accuracy and Post-Report Drift at CBOE

CBOE has beaten earnings estimates in 7 of the last 8 reported quarters, an 88% beat rate, with an average earnings surprise of 3.8%. Across those same eight reports the stock recorded an average 5-day move of 3.91% after earnings, classified as an upward drift. The four most recent quarters show the underlying detail behind the averages. On 2025-10-31, CBOE reported actual EPS of $2.67 against an estimate of $2.53, a 5.5% surprise, and the stock rose 0.52% the next day and 4.47% over the following five trading days. On 2026-02-06, actual EPS was $3.06 versus $2.94, a 4.1% beat, producing a 2.75% next-day gain and a 0.64% five-day drift. On 2026-05-01, actual EPS came in at $3.70 versus $3.34, a 10.8% beat, and the stock climbed 3.65% the next day and 6.61% over the next five sessions. On 2026-07-31, actual EPS was $3.56 against an estimate of $3.48, a 2.3% beat, yet the stock fell 4.44% the next day and finished the following five days with a 0.00% change.

Options Flow and Volatility Pricing Around the October 30 Report

CBOE is scheduled to report next on 2026-10-30 before the market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $3.39. The current snapshot shows the stock at $296.65, with an RSI of 56.9 and a 50-day EMA of $285.62 in the Financial Services/Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges sector. Around earnings, the options market prices expected move into the nearest expiration straddles. A useful comparison is the premium embedded in those straddles versus the historical 3.91% average five-day drift. If the realized post-report move is smaller than the implied move, long volatility structures can lose value from theta and implied-volatility contraction even when the reported number matches the market's real expectation. If the realized move is larger, short gamma exposure around the at-the-money strikes can generate rapid delta adjustment.

The direction of the move also matters for flow positioning. CBOE's 88% beat rate means the headline direction may appear biased higher, but the 2026-07-31 report demonstrates a beat does not automatically produce a higher stock price. That 2.3% surprise coincided with a -4.44% next-day drop, while the 10.8% surprise on 2026-05-01 produced the strongest post-report rally. Flow around the 2026-10-30 event may therefore reflect hedging against both gap risk and post-event drift, not simply a directional bet.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches

A disciplined trader watching CBOE into the 2026-10-30 report can start by comparing the actual EPS print to the $3.39 consensus and measuring the percentage surprise against the 3.8% eight-quarter average. Recent history shows the size of the surprise relative to the unofficial consensus may be more informative than the beat label itself. The first trading day after the report has produced next-day moves ranging from -4.44% to +3.65% across the last four releases, so intraday liquidity and opening order flow can be significant. The five-day drift is classified as "up" at an average of 3.91%, but the most recent report carried a 0.00% five-day drift, a reminder that continuation is not automatic.

Technical levels add further context. The current RSI of 56.9 sits neither overbought nor oversold, while the 50-day EMA at $285.62 is $11.03 below the $296.65 price. For a deeper dive into how analysts are currently positioned, review the full institutional verdict on the ticker.